It looks like old John McCain has the Republican Presidential nomination sewn up. Amazing, given that he was running out of dough and hope not too long ago.
Hillary vs. Obama is still close, but "close" means that given all her machinery, including the whole "super delegate" scam, Hill will be the nominee.
And in November, we'll have four more years of a Republican White House. Can't wait.
Comments (33)
At least it will be a liberal republican white house.
So will we end up with VP Huckabee? Considering his age and the fact that he's had a few cancer scares already, I'm not so sure that McCain will survive a full four year term.
What are the chances of TWO presidents from Hope, AR?
Here are some good excerpts from politico.com's post this morning about why Hillary should be worried about Obama:
"(re: Super Tuesday:) She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago. At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone. One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.
This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.
All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths."
...
"She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing. He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward."
...
"The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests. In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine. Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters. Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.
The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win."
Call me crazy, but I'd just as soon see a Republican in the WH to follow W. It's going to be a mess. Taxes will have to be raised and other potentially divisive actions taken. A Republican will have an easier time doing the right thing. Besides, I think the R's have and are willing to use all the tools they need to keep a D from accomplishing anything useful.
I think that assuming "President-Elect McCain" is a bit premature and fairly pessimistic. We still don't know who Edwards will throw his weight behind. And in any event, whomever gets the nod from the Dems will enjoy more party support than McCain seems to be able to get from the Republican party. While McCain used to enjoy support from independents and center-leaning Democrats, I think he has turned off those groups when he sucked up to Falwell and would lose them altogether if he went for a McCain-Huckabee ticket.
A lot of hard line Republicans are saying they will not vote for McCaine but rather sit it out. They say let Hillary (the democrat) screw the country up. They are getting their marching orders right from the top.... Rush Limbaugh.
I wouldn't count on McCain being a lock. Nothing supresses the repub vote like nominating someone most of them can't stand. Or at least a goodly portion of them.
So Hillary looses the nomination to Obama and then she becomes Majority leader in the Senate....
And does anyone think she won't take her revenge on Barak upon loosing the presidnetial nomination?
That is scary to me as well.
If McCain triumphs over the dems, the Senate remains democratically controled and Hillary is the Majority Leader, who knows what won't happen for 4 more years.
Time to make another dozen phone calls for Barrack. Thanks for the motivation Jack. McCain's war mongering is intolerable and it will assure this Country's economic demise.
McCain is the new Bob Dole. Smart, likable, and about to get his butt kicked. . . by either Dem. The conservative elite hates him, and his "Stay in Iraq for 100 years" is going to haunt him, even if things go reasonably well there for the rest of the year. Plus, he's 71 years old, 72 before the GOP convention. By any standard, that's old to be doing a 24/7, high stress job.
Guess I'm the only R on this page... I'll hold my nose and vote for McCain but I sure hope Huckabee isn't his running mate.
Incidentally, assuming Hill does get the nomination, any chance she will want Barack as her running mate? And assuming she wants him, would Barack accept? Or is Richardson more likely?
Against Hillary, he will get every Republican who cares at all, the white male vote, and many people in the middle of the political spectrum who are tired of American "dynasties." The conservative hatred you cite will quickly dissipate once McCain is the clear nominee, which is any day now.
Hillary isn't going to get out the vote -- rather than bring a clothespin for their nose and vote for her, a lot of Democrats are going to sleep through it.
So Hillary looses the nomination to Obama and then she becomes Majority leader in the Senate....
If Hillary loses the nomination, she will be out of politics in two years. She could give a rat's heiny about representing... er... um... what state is that she's supposed to be representing again?
I think you are correct Jack about McCain being the next President-elect. And I suspect that if he wins the Republican nomination, most of the hard liner Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him.
Obama's going to get leaned on HEAVY to be her running mate. You could see it watching the coverage last night. Obama's way too smart for that. With the exceptions of Johnson and Truman who was the last Democratic vice president, or candidate for vice president, to be elected president? There's nothing to be gained.
McCain is going to go down in flames because of one of the few times that he actually did engage in straight talk--that videotaped comment that he sees no problem staying in Iraq for 100 years.
Many of you are old enough to remember what Lyndon Johnson did to Goldwater in '64 with that ad featuring the little girl. I'm sure today's Democratic advertising guys can create as good an ad about McCain that will scare the daylights out of the voters.
Barack would never agree to be Tracey Flick's Vice President - he knows she'd send him on a four-year global warming fact-finding mission to Antarctica.
Fortunately, Barack's going to win, so this is moot.
"If Hillary loses the nomination, she will be out of politics in two years."
-----
Not so sure. She is like Nixon; there is no other thing she can do, or wants to do. She is too young to give it up, even if she says: "You won't have Hillary to kick around anymore!"
Yes, sadly, we will have her (and Bill)around for quite a long while.
And when McCain kicks the bucket in office, and Jeb finishes out that term, Billary will be right there for their country, to serve their (little) people and continue the dynasties ad nauseum.
Obama should clean up in all the Feb States. Then Texas, Penn, and Ohio are the big states left. Figure Hillary takes Penn but not by a large margin, but Texas and Ohio could go either way, Obama does well in rural areas, this seems counterintuitive since Obama is considered the "Wine track" (Think Hart, Tsongas, Bradley, basically every one I've supported in my voting life, so I guess that makes me the protypical out of touch liberal elitist:-)) candidate who appeals to upscale voters normally found in cities; my guess is that Hillary has the big city machines behind her so wins the traditionally democratic cities unless there is a large black population, Obama gets the wine track voters and the black voters (a new dynamic that gets him close to 45% nationally already) then the extra push comes from independants and Conservative anti Hillary Dems (hence the rural support) which goes to show that a lot of people vote personality not issues, you can say a lot about Obama, but more conservative than Hillary is not one of them. As a liberal Obama is the best possible candidate, a very liberal dem who for some reason appeals to COnservatives who view him as more Conservative than he is. Hillary is the worst possibility, basically a Centrist who is viewed as a cross between Mao and Karl Marx by a lot of people. Like I said it is all style rather than actual issues. Really through no fault of her own Hillary carries the weight of the 60s and 70s and is viewed by all the "normal heartland americans" as the personification of everything they disliked. It is like a Rorsch test, don't like anti-war Hippies, then Hillary is one, don't like Feminists, then Hillary is one, and so on.
So back to the point, that gives Obama a good shot at Ohio, the Cleveland and Cinncinati machines will be for Hillary, but there may be enough blacks to offset that and the rural counties will be big for Obama. The Latino vote in Texas is the wild card, maybe another month will give Obama enough time to chip away at Hillary's support there.
THE BEST DEMOCRAT
What's the deal with Hillary busting out with all the bright yellow pantsuits ?
Is she looking for the fatlady, Rosie O'Donnell,Starr Jones vote ?
Instead of the misty eyed "woman hit the glass ceiling" ploy for Jezebel sympathy, why dosen't she just come out and say that she's looking for the man-hating, white wine sipping, L-Word watching, dancing down the aisle Ellen Degeneras watching vote. A female version of the Godfather of Soul's " The Big Payback". The fake podium girlfriend-girlfriend smile, the commercials that contain scenes of her hugging up to women of color, containing no men makes me think that she's a bigger Bulls**tter than ole Billyboy.
Hey, if she wins, she can put Chuck Shummer under the desk with a cigar,,,
Greg tried to answer Chris Snethen's question, but he forgot one of the Democrats who ran for vice president and was later elected president. His initials were FDR -- not a bad precedent.
Charamba, Douro 2008
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Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
Avignonesi, Montepulciano 2004
Lorelle, Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2007
Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
Lorelle, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2011
Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
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King Estate, Pinot Noir 2011
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La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
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Nobilo Icon, Pinot Noir, Marlborough 2009
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Revelation, Chardonnay, Pays d'Oc 2010
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Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2009
Espiral, Vinho Rose
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14 Hands, Hot to Trot Red 2009
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La Bourgeoisie, Red 2009
Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
Kirkland, Alexander Valley Merlot 2008
Muga, Rioja Rose 2010
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Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
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Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
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Maquis Lien 2006
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Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
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Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
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Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
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Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 21
At this date last year: 52
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (33)
At least it will be a liberal republican white house.
Posted by Al | February 6, 2008 10:33 AM
Maybe but based on the way it's starting to trend, there's also a good chance it'll be President-Elect Obama.
Posted by Bill McDonald | February 6, 2008 10:54 AM
Don't count out Bill, er, Hillary's chances once she gets the machine working.
Posted by Steve | February 6, 2008 11:07 AM
So will we end up with VP Huckabee? Considering his age and the fact that he's had a few cancer scares already, I'm not so sure that McCain will survive a full four year term.
What are the chances of TWO presidents from Hope, AR?
Posted by Chad | February 6, 2008 11:41 AM
Here are some good excerpts from politico.com's post this morning about why Hillary should be worried about Obama:
"(re: Super Tuesday:) She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago. At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone. One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him.
This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.
All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths."
...
"She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing. He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward."
...
"The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests. In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine. Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters. Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.
The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win."
Posted by Rich | February 6, 2008 11:50 AM
Sadly, I think you're right.
Posted by Dave | February 6, 2008 11:51 AM
So IMHO, we are going to get the best Republican (McCain) and worst Democrat (Clinton). I will still probably vote Dem.
Posted by Todd H. | February 6, 2008 11:56 AM
I think Obama is infinitely more appealing than Clinton. I hope he can prevail.
Posted by Dave | February 6, 2008 11:58 AM
If HC gets the nod, I'll vote third party. (Calling Michael Bloomberg)
Posted by Dave | February 6, 2008 12:01 PM
Call me crazy, but I'd just as soon see a Republican in the WH to follow W. It's going to be a mess. Taxes will have to be raised and other potentially divisive actions taken. A Republican will have an easier time doing the right thing. Besides, I think the R's have and are willing to use all the tools they need to keep a D from accomplishing anything useful.
Posted by Allan L. | February 6, 2008 12:20 PM
Ok Allan L.: You're crazy! :-)
I think that assuming "President-Elect McCain" is a bit premature and fairly pessimistic. We still don't know who Edwards will throw his weight behind. And in any event, whomever gets the nod from the Dems will enjoy more party support than McCain seems to be able to get from the Republican party. While McCain used to enjoy support from independents and center-leaning Democrats, I think he has turned off those groups when he sucked up to Falwell and would lose them altogether if he went for a McCain-Huckabee ticket.
Posted by Nick | February 6, 2008 12:45 PM
A lot of hard line Republicans are saying they will not vote for McCaine but rather sit it out. They say let Hillary (the democrat) screw the country up. They are getting their marching orders right from the top.... Rush Limbaugh.
Posted by Dave Lister | February 6, 2008 1:14 PM
Remember president bush stating that if he had his way, Jeb Bush would be the next president.
Well someone said that Jeb would be McCain's running mate.
I hope this isn't the picture someone is painting.
Posted by smith | February 6, 2008 1:30 PM
www.draftbloomberg.com
Posted by RickN | February 6, 2008 1:31 PM
I wouldn't count on McCain being a lock. Nothing supresses the repub vote like nominating someone most of them can't stand. Or at least a goodly portion of them.
Posted by buck | February 6, 2008 1:48 PM
So Hillary looses the nomination to Obama and then she becomes Majority leader in the Senate....
And does anyone think she won't take her revenge on Barak upon loosing the presidnetial nomination?
That is scary to me as well.
If McCain triumphs over the dems, the Senate remains democratically controled and Hillary is the Majority Leader, who knows what won't happen for 4 more years.
Posted by portland native | February 6, 2008 1:49 PM
Time to make another dozen phone calls for Barrack. Thanks for the motivation Jack. McCain's war mongering is intolerable and it will assure this Country's economic demise.
Posted by genop | February 6, 2008 2:00 PM
McCain is the new Bob Dole. Smart, likable, and about to get his butt kicked. . . by either Dem. The conservative elite hates him, and his "Stay in Iraq for 100 years" is going to haunt him, even if things go reasonably well there for the rest of the year. Plus, he's 71 years old, 72 before the GOP convention. By any standard, that's old to be doing a 24/7, high stress job.
Posted by Miles | February 6, 2008 2:04 PM
Guess I'm the only R on this page... I'll hold my nose and vote for McCain but I sure hope Huckabee isn't his running mate.
Incidentally, assuming Hill does get the nomination, any chance she will want Barack as her running mate? And assuming she wants him, would Barack accept? Or is Richardson more likely?
Posted by Greg | February 6, 2008 2:38 PM
about to get his butt kicked. . . by either Dem
Against Hillary, he will get every Republican who cares at all, the white male vote, and many people in the middle of the political spectrum who are tired of American "dynasties." The conservative hatred you cite will quickly dissipate once McCain is the clear nominee, which is any day now.
Hillary isn't going to get out the vote -- rather than bring a clothespin for their nose and vote for her, a lot of Democrats are going to sleep through it.
Posted by Jack Bog | February 6, 2008 2:40 PM
assuming she wants him, would Barack accept?
He'd be a fool to do so. Hillary's real vice president will be Bill Clinton. The guy with the title will just be there for show.
Posted by Jack Bog | February 6, 2008 2:41 PM
So Hillary looses the nomination to Obama and then she becomes Majority leader in the Senate....
If Hillary loses the nomination, she will be out of politics in two years. She could give a rat's heiny about representing... er... um... what state is that she's supposed to be representing again?
Posted by Jack Bog | February 6, 2008 2:43 PM
I think you are correct Jack about McCain being the next President-elect. And I suspect that if he wins the Republican nomination, most of the hard liner Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him.
Posted by Dave A. | February 6, 2008 2:54 PM
she will be out of politics in two years
Bingo.
Obama's going to get leaned on HEAVY to be her running mate. You could see it watching the coverage last night. Obama's way too smart for that. With the exceptions of Johnson and Truman who was the last Democratic vice president, or candidate for vice president, to be elected president? There's nothing to be gained.
Posted by Chris Snethen | February 6, 2008 4:20 PM
With the exceptions of Johnson and Truman who was the last Democratic vice president, or candidate for vice president, to be elected president?
The only other one is Martin Van Buren. Of course, Gore, Mondale, and Humphrey all were nominated...but all lost.
Posted by Greg | February 6, 2008 5:18 PM
Hillary's vice president will be Bill's beyotch.
Posted by Jack Bog | February 6, 2008 5:42 PM
where's the koolaid........?
Posted by kathe w. | February 6, 2008 7:50 PM
McCain is going to go down in flames because of one of the few times that he actually did engage in straight talk--that videotaped comment that he sees no problem staying in Iraq for 100 years.
Many of you are old enough to remember what Lyndon Johnson did to Goldwater in '64 with that ad featuring the little girl. I'm sure today's Democratic advertising guys can create as good an ad about McCain that will scare the daylights out of the voters.
Posted by Gil Johnson | February 6, 2008 9:57 PM
Barack would never agree to be Tracey Flick's Vice President - he knows she'd send him on a four-year global warming fact-finding mission to Antarctica.
Fortunately, Barack's going to win, so this is moot.
Posted by Scott Schiefelbein | February 7, 2008 8:47 AM
"If Hillary loses the nomination, she will be out of politics in two years."
-----
Not so sure. She is like Nixon; there is no other thing she can do, or wants to do. She is too young to give it up, even if she says: "You won't have Hillary to kick around anymore!"
Yes, sadly, we will have her (and Bill)around for quite a long while.
And when McCain kicks the bucket in office, and Jeb finishes out that term, Billary will be right there for their country, to serve their (little) people and continue the dynasties ad nauseum.
Posted by Harry | February 7, 2008 10:14 AM
I think it will come down to Texas and Ohio.
Obama should clean up in all the Feb States. Then Texas, Penn, and Ohio are the big states left. Figure Hillary takes Penn but not by a large margin, but Texas and Ohio could go either way, Obama does well in rural areas, this seems counterintuitive since Obama is considered the "Wine track" (Think Hart, Tsongas, Bradley, basically every one I've supported in my voting life, so I guess that makes me the protypical out of touch liberal elitist:-)) candidate who appeals to upscale voters normally found in cities; my guess is that Hillary has the big city machines behind her so wins the traditionally democratic cities unless there is a large black population, Obama gets the wine track voters and the black voters (a new dynamic that gets him close to 45% nationally already) then the extra push comes from independants and Conservative anti Hillary Dems (hence the rural support) which goes to show that a lot of people vote personality not issues, you can say a lot about Obama, but more conservative than Hillary is not one of them. As a liberal Obama is the best possible candidate, a very liberal dem who for some reason appeals to COnservatives who view him as more Conservative than he is. Hillary is the worst possibility, basically a Centrist who is viewed as a cross between Mao and Karl Marx by a lot of people. Like I said it is all style rather than actual issues. Really through no fault of her own Hillary carries the weight of the 60s and 70s and is viewed by all the "normal heartland americans" as the personification of everything they disliked. It is like a Rorsch test, don't like anti-war Hippies, then Hillary is one, don't like Feminists, then Hillary is one, and so on.
So back to the point, that gives Obama a good shot at Ohio, the Cleveland and Cinncinati machines will be for Hillary, but there may be enough blacks to offset that and the rural counties will be big for Obama. The Latino vote in Texas is the wild card, maybe another month will give Obama enough time to chip away at Hillary's support there.
Posted by Eric k | February 7, 2008 10:40 AM
THE BEST DEMOCRAT
What's the deal with Hillary busting out with all the bright yellow pantsuits ?
Is she looking for the fatlady, Rosie O'Donnell,Starr Jones vote ?
Instead of the misty eyed "woman hit the glass ceiling" ploy for Jezebel sympathy, why dosen't she just come out and say that she's looking for the man-hating, white wine sipping, L-Word watching, dancing down the aisle Ellen Degeneras watching vote. A female version of the Godfather of Soul's " The Big Payback". The fake podium girlfriend-girlfriend smile, the commercials that contain scenes of her hugging up to women of color, containing no men makes me think that she's a bigger Bulls**tter than ole Billyboy.
Hey, if she wins, she can put Chuck Shummer under the desk with a cigar,,,
Posted by brother gary | February 7, 2008 11:49 AM
Greg tried to answer Chris Snethen's question, but he forgot one of the Democrats who ran for vice president and was later elected president. His initials were FDR -- not a bad precedent.
Posted by Charlie | February 7, 2008 4:40 PM