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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 26, 2007 11:34 PM. The previous post in this blog was I come to praise the ump, not to bury him. The next post in this blog is Buck-a-Hit Day final tally. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Dogs down the home stretch

The streak continues! No, not that other one... I'm talking about two weeks in a row in which I have picked winners in the pro football underdog pool. I knew the Redskins could take the Vikes, and I picked up 6½ points for getting that one right. With that victory, I jumped a few spots in the rankings. There's no way I'll win the money for the best year, but the pride is back.

Now it's on to the last weekend of the regular season, where most of the games don't mean much, and so just about anything can happen. Most of the best teams have little to gain if they win, and a lot to lose if somebody important gets hurt or worn out.

The Giants-Patriots game is the headliner, of course, since the Patriots are going for the perfect season record. Do you think it matters enough to the Giants, who are guaranteed a playoff spot, to want to spoil that?

As best I can tell, there are four other games to watch. Tennessee will make the playoffs if it beats Indy (playoff team), and won't if it doesn't. Cleveland will go if Tennessee loses, but it doesn't matter whether Cleveland beats the Niners (season long since over) or not.

Washington, Minnesota, and New Orleans all have to win to make it. If Washington wins over Dallas (playoff team), they're in and the other two aren't. If Washington loses and Minnesota beats Denver (going nowhere), Minnesota is in. If Washington and Minnesota lose and New Orleans wins in Chicago (done for the year), New Orleans is in.

The pool will go on in the playoffs, but the spreads will be smaller and there won't be many games to pick from. So here's the last real dance. Do you see an underdog (in caps) who can win its game outright? For convenience, I've placed an asterisk on the four teams with something potentially on the line, and a pound sign next to playoff teams who may want to rest up for the money games ahead:

14 NEW YORK GIANTS# vs New England# (Saturday)
10.5 SAN FRANCISCO at Cleveland
9 DALLAS# vs. Washington*
8 OAKLAND vs. San Diego#
7.5 BUFFALO at Philadelphia
6.5 TENNESSEE* at Indianapolis#
6 JACKSONVILLE# at Houston
6 ST. LOUIS at Arizona
6 KANSAS CITY at New York Jets
3.5 DETROIT at Green Bay#
3.5 BALTIMORE vs. Pittsburgh#
3 DENVER vs. Minnesota*
2.5 TAMPA BAY# vs. Carolina
2.5 MIAMI vs. Cincinnati
2.5 SEATTLE# at Atlanta
2 CHICAGO vs. New Orleans*

That wedge in there with Dallas, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee, and Jacksonville in it is pretty intriguing to me. And remember, I'm on a streak! Readers?

Comments (8)

Interesting... the oddsmakers think that the Colts are going to show up and play, and the Cowboys aren't. Why do you suppose that is?

Dallas and Washington, a perennial rivalry. Assuming these are professionals, they (should) play every game to win. Dallas, Jacksonville and Seattle.

I like Oakland at home. Fierce rivalry - and San Diego is in. Not likely going to risk an injury to LT.

San Diego is not really a pound sign... they need this win to lock up the #3 AFC spot. A loss means they have to face the Pats earlier in the playoffs.

A loss means they have to face the Pats earlier in the playoffs.

If they're thinking that way, they may as well quit now.

I think that is why JB was saying that SD should not have a # next to their name: because they would want to face the Pats later in the playoffs by getting the #3 seed in the AFC. I could be wrong though. I think SD has a shot to do damage in the playoffs even if they lose this weekend. I certainly wouldn't want to lose LT and would rest him up well this week.

Plus, I'm withdrawing my Oakland recommendation. I think SD can beat them even without LT in.

Dallas is a pretty good bet, especially at home.

JAX is the scariest team going right now. They should win hands down versus Houston.

Holmgren press release - This will be treated like any regular season game. Starters will play.


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