About yesterday's "exit" polls
Yesterday we ran two "exit" polls on ballot Measures 49 and 50. We remarked in the accompanying comments that the readership of this blog is fairly Portland-centric, and so our results might better reflect the vote in Multnomah County than anywhere else in the state.
Just for the heck of it, here are our poll results (in percentages) compared with the unofficial final results in Multnomah County. Note that the third number in our results is the percentage of respondents in our poll who said they didn't vote on the respective ballot measure:
Measure 49: Our poll 70-27-3, Multnomah County actual 79-21.
Measure 50: Our poll 57-40-3, Multnomah County actual 57-43.
We were close enough to the actuals that if no one else runs "exit" polls in the future, we plan to.
| Posted at 2:07 PM | Permalink |
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Comments (6)
That's an extraordinary representation, except for the non-vote! It stands to reason, I think, that your readers are very likely to vote.
Posted by Allan L. | November 7, 2007 2:51 PM
The non-vote button was just there to make sure people didn't check "No" when they meant "I didn't vote." Anyone could see the results without voting by checking "View."
Posted by Jack Bog | November 7, 2007 3:03 PM
I'm not surprised. All you really need is about 100 random responses and you'll get within a few percentage points of the full distribution. It is harder to say whether the people who vote on here are "random" or not. There is a lot of self selection that goes on by the folks who choose to log in here.
Posted by andy | November 7, 2007 3:27 PM
I'm surprised that the Jack Bog poll results hew so closely to the actual Portland vote. From reading the comments here, I had thought that the Karlocks, Mr. Tees, RRs, McMullens, etc far outnumbered the Sherwoods. But it looks like the one group is just far more vociferous and indefatigable in their commenting, and not greater in number.
This is a happy revelation!
Posted by Richard | November 7, 2007 4:26 PM
Fight "bad" comments with "good" comments!
Posted by Jack Bog | November 7, 2007 4:49 PM
Wow - Statistics really works! Good job!
Posted by Bilbo Baggins | November 7, 2007 7:35 PM