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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 9, 2007 11:08 PM. The previous post in this blog was Starbucks chokes small children. The next post in this blog is While City of Portland's debt rises, its tax levy falls. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Walkin' the dogs

Another week of pro football has come and gone, and the favorites won all but three of last weekend's games, leaving everyone in the underdog pool in which I play without a winner. None of us had Chicago, Carolina (Usual Kevin was brooding about that one), or San Diego (not much of a dog at only a 1-point spread). Based on several tips I received here, I chose Seattle, who stunk the place up in Pittsburgh -- a shutout! Sheesh. At least I didn't pass up any juicy winners.

But another round of games is just around the corner, and surely there will be a shocker or two in the pack. Our job is to figure out who it's going to be. Remember, the underdog (in caps below) must win the game outright -- the points listed are significant only in that they tell how many points I'll win if I choose the winning dog:

10 OAKLAND at San Diego
9.5 ST. LOUIS at Baltimore
6.5 HOUSTON at Jacksonville
6.5 NEW ORLEANS at Seattle
5.5 MINNESOTA at Chicago
5 DALLAS vs. New England
4.5 MIAMI at Cleveland
4 CAROLINA at Arizona
3 KANSAS CITY vs. Cincinnati
3 WASHINGTON at Green Bay
3 ATLANTA vs. New York Giants
3 TENNESSEE at Tampa Bay
2.5 NEW YORK JETS vs. Philadelphia

Fascinating set of choices there. Atlanta at home over the Giants? Could depend on Plaxico's ankle. Dallas at home over the Mighty Pats? Will home cookin' straighten out the Seahawks, or should I go way out on a limb with the 'Aints? Tennessee or Houston -- I haven't a clue. Football fans?

Comments (19)

My first-glance list:
Houston
Minnesota
Tennessee

This is a tough week. I don't think I'm set on any of these teams, but if I had to pick, it would be:

Houston
Dallas
Carolina

I think the best chance for an upset is Dallas. Monday night was a fluke night (for many reasons) and I think Romo will come back and play a great game. The Pats are a great team right now, but I think Dallas might have a shot to beat them, at home. On the other hand, it could be a blowout, but either way it will be a good game to watch.

Skins beat the Pack, who are due for a letdown game.

I'm picking Carolina. Leinart is out for the season so Kurt Warner is back in the driver's seat. AZ will have to cover the spread with a QB who is the last couple of years has a bad habit of getting sacked, hurt, and turning the ball over.

On Carolina's side, David Carr is replacing Delhomme, but he has had a couple of weeks to get used to his new team's offense system.

After that, I'm picking New Orleans. Drew and Reggie have to break out of their funk some time, right? 6.5 is a wide spread for how poorly Seattle has been playing lately.

I'd go with Houston. Jacksonville is perpetually disappointing, and I think Houston is definitely on the upswing.

I also think the Jets can take Philadelphia, who doesn't seem to have anyone on the line who can keep Donovan safe.

St. Louis is tempting if you need to make up a lot of ground-- Baltimore can have trouble scoring and STL could put up 13-20 if they get lucky.

This week is a great week for upsets, Jack. The complete opposite of last week. Any of the top four is a better gamble than your mid-range games (and I emphasize gamble). San Diego could easily return to their woeful selves because, well, it's the Raiders. If New Orleans shows up, they could give the schizoid Seahawks headache leaving Arizona in 1st in the West (could happen!). But my pick of the bunch is ST LOUIS. Just too good a team to discard altogether, they are due to unload one. Baltimore is a good match up for that this week. The stars are aligned. Good luck!

I went with the Seahawks last week when I knew better, but my conscious is clean because I warned everyone not to go along with me. Now I'm down from +10 to +4 for the season.

I know the Seahawks got shut out last week. I saw the game with my own eyes, and what I noticed was that the game was scoreless for most of the first half, and the Seattle defense was outstanding. There was an excellent opportunity for Seattle to go into the locker room down 3 to 10 at the half, but they went for it on 4th and goal rather than kick a field goal. It was a hot humid day and when the offense couldn't convert on 3rd downs due to dropped balls and a non-existent running attack, it forced the defense to stay on the field too long and they gave up a few big plays here and there due to exhaustion. When the second half started the Seattle offense didn't get the ball until the 6 or 7 minute mark of the 3rd quarter and then went three and out on their first possession due in part to a false start penalty from the extreme crowd noise. It's my feeling that Seattle maybe just isn't good enough to beat a very solid Pittsburgh team on the road, and they have always sucked when they travel into the eastern time zone to play. Playing the Saints in Seattle is almost a 180 degree different scenario, and I think the Seahawks will have no problem destroying New Orleans just like they destroyed San Franscisco two weeks ago in San Francisco. Their only other loss was at Arizona because Shawn Alexander muffed a basic hand-off while they were in field goal range with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

I think Carolina over Arizona is a horrible pick because Arizona plays really well at home in their fancy new stadium. (Arizona beat a very solid Pittsburgh two weeks ago in Arizona) Curt Warner is a solid former MVP QB, and probably not even a step down from second year QB Matt Leinart. Carolina just signed 43 year old Vinnie Testaverde (he's turning 44 next month) to fill in for injured Jake Delhomme, and he will have to learn an entire offense in 5 days? It will be a fun game to watch because I'm 42, and I want to see Vinnie do a good job. I also want to see Arizona lose because they're in the same division as Seattle, but there is no way I'm going risk going backwards another 4 points by picking Carolina over Arizona.

I am picking undefeated Dallas over undefeated New England because Dallas is playing at home. The Pats beat Cleveland last weekend, but the Browns were able to give them a little bit of trouble. It might be one of the best games of the season, and I'm looking forward to it, and hopefully I pick up +5 in the process. If the Pats win this one in Dallas I think it's pretty safe to say they will be this season's winner of the Super Bowl as long as Tom Brady stays healthy.

On the other end of the spectrum is this weeks Stinker Bowl with 1-4 Philadelphia playing the 1-4 New York Jets at New York. Philly got dumped by the Giants in New York two weeks ago. Philly has also NEVER lost to the New York Jets. I think it's time for the home team Jets to end the streak and they prevail over the Eagles this time around for + 2.5.


Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta

I'm not picking against the Pats or Colts this season until they lose at least a game. They both are locked in a death match for home field for the playoffs. I think the Pats take the 'Boys by 6. Short week for Dallas too.

I like TENN over TB. They looked horrible against Atlanta last week and were lucky to win. They'll bounce back strong against a banged up TB team that's fading.

Longshot: I like OAK over SD far more than the next few selections. Following up a big blowout at Den with an embarassing home loss to the Raiders seems perfect for the Norv regime.

OK, in order:

3 TENNESSEE - This is tough, I like both teams, but Vince Young is learning fast.

6.5 HOUSTON - I am still trying to figure out which good/bad tems will show since both are schizo. However, Houston looks more stable. I have to admit Garrard is doing better than I thought he would.

4 CAROLINA - I think AZ will under-score CAR. Edge is about the only threat now.

3 WASHINGTON - Is back to their 2005 defense. They should stop GB since they have no running game.

Two locks and one good bet to cover:

1. Tennessee will beat Tampa Bay.
2. Washington will beat Green Bay.

Houston has had Jacksonville's number for the past few years, but I can't see them pulling off a win there.

saints are the best pick. I am not saying that becasue I am a huge fan or because I am currently wearing a 1979 Archie Manning throwback jersey. I just think that every team wins at least one game in this league.

I'd pick the Saints to come up with their first win. Both teams are shells of themselves, but the Saints are a lot healthier (fewer people playing injured) right now than Seattle.

Other than that, I'd find St. Louis tempting because of the large point spread and the upset potential.

They have a slightly better offense (albeit very beat up) and better special teams. Baltimore's D is clearly better but their offense is anemic.

I wouldn't predict a STL victory, but I think the spread should be closer so (if a couple breaks go their way) the upset potential is enticing.

Houston, Carolina, KC

I'm going with the Titans over Tampa Bay and OAKLAND OVER SAN DIEGO. I know - I know - but why not? san Diego has looked pathetic so far this season. Certainly not the 14-2 team from last season.

UPDATE: Ravens QB McNair has a sore back. Might have to go with the backup. If he plays, he's stiff. Rams head coach is playing for his gig. Chance to make up a lot of points, Jack.

We might see Vinny Testaverde taking the snaps for Carolina. Be very afraid.

travis: 2-0
Unusual Kevin: 0-2

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go with Warner when money is on the line!

As I said, Warner has a propensity of getting hurt.


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