Steve Stark says that if a conservative third-party candidate shows up, the Republicans are toast in '08:
[T]he election may be a repeat of 1992. Though Democrats like to forget it, Bill Clinton was an enormously damaged candidate that year because of the personal scandals surrounding his candidacy. It’s debatable whether he could have won a two-way general election. But 43 percent in a three-person field? That was child’s play, as a three-way race would be for Hillary next year.
Comments (7)
Let's have Paul running against Gravel or Kucinich in a country for the rest of us.
I think Ron Paul would draw more voters from Hillary than he would from the Republican candidate.
There's that, for sure. But RP is pretty hard-over libertarian: no social security, no medicare or national health program, etc., which I think dems would not like so much.
There is a common myth that B. Clinton would not have won the 92 elections if Ross Perot were not running. However that is simply wrong. The only reliable poll conducted by the Washington Post (I think) shows that Perot voters were almost evenly split between Repubs and Dems. If I have time to find the article I will post the link.
Ron Paul is appealing for several reasons, most notably his view on Iraq and his zeal for eliminating the national debt, but the devil is in the details and until he actually spells out what he would do domestically I will continue to withhold judgement. I also think he would hurt Repubs more in a 3 way race, but I don't know.
I'll be working for Dr. Paul. I've been following him as a congressman for years, and I'm very happy he's finally getting his name and message out there. I don't know that I've found anything I disagree with him about. You guys should all go to youtube, watch his videos, and tell me. One of my problems with the Republican party is I'm too much of a social liberal, live and let live type of person. That's also one of my main problems with the Democrats :)
Obviously what the Republicans and Democrats have been doing for the past three decades isn't working very well. I think it's time for a change, and I don't mean more socialism. Maybe if the government let more people keep their money in their own pockets instead of the governments we'd have more people able to take care of themselves and fire the babysitter.
"His shtick is that he's anti-war.....and he's more anti-war than Hillary is."
His schtick is a lot more than just that. He's anti-military-industrial-complex. That's a much larger kettle of fish, and a big departure from the typical Republican or Democrat position.
I ain't exactly the most conservative voice around here, so it may surprise many that I am seriously considering Ron Paul.
He wants a lot of things I don't like - drastic reduction of various social safety nets, for instance - but there's a lot to like about him, too: he's a real fiscal conservative, and he seems to be the best kind of anti-authoritarian.
On balance, he's a pretty attractive candidate to me. At this moment I'd favor him over any of the front-runners from either major party. (But of course it is too early to really say for sure.)
That was my point Alan. I know he is much more complex than just being anti-war. He is anti-establishment as well and I think that plays better with liberals than conservatives.....even if they aren't in lock-step ideologically.
I'm not sure butch, many true conservatives are itching to get these folks that have hijacked the Republican party out of office. Most people have never read the Republican platform. If they did, they'd see that this current administration is Republican in name only.
Charamba, Douro 2008
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Comments (7)
Let's have Paul running against Gravel or Kucinich in a country for the rest of us.
Posted by Allan L. | October 18, 2007 9:28 AM
I think Ron Paul would draw more voters from Hillary than he would from the Republican candidate.
There's that, for sure. But RP is pretty hard-over libertarian: no social security, no medicare or national health program, etc., which I think dems would not like so much.
Posted by Allan L. | October 18, 2007 11:19 AM
There is a common myth that B. Clinton would not have won the 92 elections if Ross Perot were not running. However that is simply wrong. The only reliable poll conducted by the Washington Post (I think) shows that Perot voters were almost evenly split between Repubs and Dems. If I have time to find the article I will post the link.
Ron Paul is appealing for several reasons, most notably his view on Iraq and his zeal for eliminating the national debt, but the devil is in the details and until he actually spells out what he would do domestically I will continue to withhold judgement. I also think he would hurt Repubs more in a 3 way race, but I don't know.
Posted by Todd H. | October 18, 2007 11:39 AM
I'll be working for Dr. Paul. I've been following him as a congressman for years, and I'm very happy he's finally getting his name and message out there. I don't know that I've found anything I disagree with him about. You guys should all go to youtube, watch his videos, and tell me. One of my problems with the Republican party is I'm too much of a social liberal, live and let live type of person. That's also one of my main problems with the Democrats :)
Obviously what the Republicans and Democrats have been doing for the past three decades isn't working very well. I think it's time for a change, and I don't mean more socialism. Maybe if the government let more people keep their money in their own pockets instead of the governments we'd have more people able to take care of themselves and fire the babysitter.
Posted by Joey Link | October 18, 2007 1:17 PM
"His shtick is that he's anti-war.....and he's more anti-war than Hillary is."
His schtick is a lot more than just that. He's anti-military-industrial-complex. That's a much larger kettle of fish, and a big departure from the typical Republican or Democrat position.
I ain't exactly the most conservative voice around here, so it may surprise many that I am seriously considering Ron Paul.
He wants a lot of things I don't like - drastic reduction of various social safety nets, for instance - but there's a lot to like about him, too: he's a real fiscal conservative, and he seems to be the best kind of anti-authoritarian.
On balance, he's a pretty attractive candidate to me. At this moment I'd favor him over any of the front-runners from either major party. (But of course it is too early to really say for sure.)
Posted by Alan DeWitt | October 18, 2007 2:15 PM
That was my point Alan. I know he is much more complex than just being anti-war. He is anti-establishment as well and I think that plays better with liberals than conservatives.....even if they aren't in lock-step ideologically.
Posted by butch | October 18, 2007 2:24 PM
I'm not sure butch, many true conservatives are itching to get these folks that have hijacked the Republican party out of office. Most people have never read the Republican platform. If they did, they'd see that this current administration is Republican in name only.
Posted by Joey Link | October 19, 2007 7:16 PM