Detail, east Portland photo, courtesy Miles Hochstein / Portland Ground.



For old times' sake
The bojack bumper sticker -- only $1.50!

To order, click here.







Excellent tunes -- free! And on your browser right now. Just click on Radio Bojack!






E-mail us here.

About

This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 16, 2007 8:19 AM. The previous post in this blog was Opie's thinking "outside the box" again. The next post in this blog is Dirty money. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

Archives

Links

Law and Taxation
How Appealing
TaxProf Blog
Mauled Again
Tax Appellate Blog
A Taxing Matter
TaxVox
Tax.com
Josh Marquis
Native America, Discovered and Conquered
The Yin Blog
Ernie the Attorney
Conglomerate
Above the Law
The Volokh Conspiracy
Going Concern
Bag and Baggage
Wealth Strategies Journal
Jim Hamilton's World of Securities Regulation
myCorporateResource.com
World of Work
The Faculty Lounge
Lowering the Bar
OrCon Law

Hap'nin' Guys
Tony Pierce
Parkway Rest Stop
Utterly Boring.com
Along the Gradyent
Dwight Jaynes
Bob Borden
Dingleberry Gazette
The Red Electric
Iced Borscht
Jeremy Blachman
Dean's Rhetorical Flourish
Straight White Guy
HinesSight
Onfocus
Jalpuna
Beerdrinker.org
As Time Goes By
Dave Wagner
Jeff Selis
Alas, a Blog
Scott Hendison
Sansego
The View Through the Windshield
Appliance Blog
The Bleat

Hap'nin' Gals
My Whim is Law
Lelo in Nopo
Attorney at Large
Linda Kruschke
The Non-Consumer Advocate
10 Steps to Finding Your Happy Place
A Pig of Success
Attorney at Large
Margaret and Helen
Kimberlee Jaynes
Cornelia Seigneur
Mireio
And Sew It Goes
Mile 73
Rainy Day Thoughts
That Black Girl
Posie Gets Cozy
{AE}
Cat Eyes
Rhi in Pink
Althouse
GirlHacker
Ragwaters, Bitters, and Blue Ruin
Frytopia
Rose City Journal
Type Like the Wind

Portland and Oregon
Isaac Laquedem
StumptownBlogger
Rantings of a [Censored] Bus Driver
Jeff Mapes
Vintage Portland
The Portlander
South Waterfront
Amanda Fritz
O City Hall Reporters
Guilty Carnivore
Old Town by Larry Norton
The Alaunt
Bend Blogs
Lost Oregon
Cafe Unknown
Tin Zeroes
David's Oregon Picayune
Mark Nelsen's Weather Blog
Travel Oregon Blog
Portland Daily Photo
Portland Building Ads
Portland Food and Drink.com
Dave Knows Portland
Idaho's Portugal
Alameda Old House History
MLK in Motion
LoveSalem

Retired from Blogging
Various Observations...
The Daily E-Mail
Saving James
Portland Freelancer
Furious Nads (b!X)
Izzle Pfaff
The Grich
Kevin Allman
AboutItAll - Oregon
Lost in the Details
Worldwide Pablo
Tales from the Stump
Whitman Boys
Misterblue
Two Pennies
This Stony Planet
1221 SW 4th
Twisty
I am a Fish
Here Today
What If...?
Superinky Fixations
Pinktalk
Mellow-Drama
The Rural Bus Route
Another Blogger
Mikeyman's Computer Treehouse
Rosenblog
Portland Housing Blog

Wonderfully Wacky
Dave Barry
Borowitz Report
Blort
Stuff White People Like
Worst of the Web

Valuable Time-Wasters
My Gallery of Jacks
Litterbox, On the Prowl
Litterbox, Bag of Bones
Litterbox, Scratch
Maukie
Ride That Donkey
Singin' Horses
Rally Monkey
Simon Swears
Strong Bad's E-mail

Oregon News
KGW-TV
The Oregonian
Portland Tribune
KOIN
Willamette Week
KATU
The Sentinel
Southeast Examiner
Northwest Examiner
Sellwood Bee
Mid-County Memo
Vancouver Voice
Eugene Register-Guard
OPB
Topix.net - Portland
Salem Statesman-Journal
Oregon Capitol News
Portland Business Journal
Daily Journal of Commerce
Oregon Business
KPTV
Portland Info Net
McMinnville News Register
Lake Oswego Review
The Daily Astorian
Bend Bulletin
Corvallis Gazette-Times
Roseburg News-Review
Medford Mail-Tribune
Ashland Daily Tidings
Newport News-Times
Albany Democrat-Herald
The Eugene Weekly
Portland IndyMedia
The Columbian

Music-Related
The Beatles
Bruce Springsteen
Seal
Sting
Joni Mitchell
Ella Fitzgerald
Steve Earle
Joe Ely
Stevie Wonder
Lou Rawls

E-mail, Feeds, 'n' Stuff

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Preview of the next 100 years

When you owe somebody billions of dollars, eventually they start telling you what to do and what not to do.

Comments (24)

Just wait until Taiwan wants to buy some military equipment.

I don't think people realize how much clout China has over us with all of those dollars sitting in their banks.

I think they are getting bolder, I read in the WSJ last week where they are suing foreigners for patent infringement after being one of the world's biggest violator's of patents and copyrights.

Message to China: GFY. You need us more than we need you.

They need Butch down at the State Department. He knows Cheney diplomacy.

How about: "GFY" and "You want the 8 trillion we owe you, come and get it!"

What chapter is national bankruptcy?

Hm? I wonder what would happen if they liquidated their Treasury Security holdings? Hopefully they are long term rather than 6 month securtities.

What chapter is national bankruptcy?

It's the last chapter.

"I wonder what would happen if they liquidated their Treasury Security holdings?"

It would hurt the Chinese a lot more than it would us. After all, our Treasury already has the money the Chinese paid for the bonds. If they drive down the price by dumping them all on the market at once, they take the loss, we don't.

It could cause interest rates to rise temporarily and the value of the dollar to fall, drawing global investment away from China and toward the U.S. while making Chinese exports to the U.S. more expensive.

This is sort of like Clevon Little in Blazing Saddles, holding a gun to his head and saying, "Stop or I'll shoot."

I remember when it was the Japanese who we thought might pull this on us in the 1980s. It never happened--for good reason.

I have roughly the same concern about China subsidizing our national debt that I do about the fact that we're draining oil fields in the Middle East, Russia, Latin America and Africa instead of the U.S.

If China gets mad and calls the IOUs, maybe all the US companies with manufacturing in China should pull up stakes and plant them in Mexico. Having all those jobs on this continent would probably cure the border problem, lower shipping costs, etc.

My thought was more along the lines of re-investing in private money markets which pay approximately 1% more interest than the treasury is now paying. Would that not drive the interest rate on treasury securities up. Seems like they are in a position to be very manipulative at our expense.

It's not only about the money for China, or the effect on their economy. It's a long-term strategy to restore Chinese pride that was lost over 200 years of colonialism, by reuniting Taiwan with the rest of China.

"I have roughly the same concern about China subsidizing our national debt that I do about the fact that we're draining oil fields in the Middle East, Russia, Latin America and Africa instead of the U.S."

I guess my problem with that is if they stop buying govt paper, then interest rates rise which would be deleterious to the economy.

They can always use the deflated dollars to buy oil and drive the price of that (at least to Americans) up too.

Main difference is the Chinese are not quite as considerate as the Japanese were in the 80s.

Congress is planning to give the Bird to Turkey so why not Chap China as well.

They will redeem our coupons some day soon anyway.

"I guess my problem with that is if they stop buying govt paper, then interest rates rise which would be deleterious to the economy."

But that means when they were buying the paper, they were keeping interest rates low and that helped the economy. So if first they buy and then they sell, won't that balance out?

This reminds me of the arguments people make that the U.S. is in deep trouble because of our weak dollar, but the Chinese have an unfair trade advantage because of the low value of their currency.

The general rule seems to be that everything that China does helps them and hurts us, while everything we do hurts us and helps them.

As I said earlier, this is nothing new. In the 1980s it was Japan that could do no wrong while the U.S. could do no right. The way people were talking then, Japan should have passed us economically by now.

Have they?

I have to disagree, my sense is that Japan bought a lot of property in the US and does have manufacturing here, so the investment runs deeper than buying paper. It was in their interest to keep us stable. Putting money in gradually and then dumping it all of sudden aren't really the same thing.

China on the other hand, has no intention of manufacturing here or making any other investment besides using govt paper to park dollars plus Taiwan will always be a bone of contention.

"China on the other hand, has no intention of manufacturing here or making any other investment besides using govt paper to park dollars . . ."

Don't bet on that. As long as China wants to run a huge trade surplus with us, they will have to recycle the dollars back into the U.S. through investments. I'm betting they start diversifying the form of that investment soon, if they aren't already.

Besides, it doesn't change the basic fundamental fact that the only way China can adversely affect our financial markets by dumping our paper is if they drive down the price of our treasury obligations (which is the same thing as saying raise interest rates in the U.S.) in which case they lose a ton of money. They have shown themselves to be far more astute business people than to want to do that.

". . . plus Taiwan will always be a bone of contention."

Don't overestimate the psychological effect of Tawain on Chinese policies. Both China and Taiwan have already indicated a fairly high level of understanding of the importance of not acting precipitously.

China needs trade and a stable political climate more than they need a war over Taiwan. For Taiwan, it is even more true.

"As long as China wants to run a huge trade surplus with us, they will have to recycle the dollars back into the U.S. through investments."

So running up our tab isn't bad because it means that China will have to buy up our assets with the interest we pay them?

Message to China: GFY. You need us more than we need you.

i'm afraid you're entirely wrong. it's the other way around.

and in the next 50-100 years, the world's going to look very, very different.

and not particularly America-centric at all.

"they will have to recycle the dollars back into the U.S. through investments."

Fine, tell me what investments they have made here. They have had a huge trade surplus with us for several years and probably have several billions of $ available. They do not do business that way, any investment they make will be highly liquid.

I mean why should they after Clinton/Gore gave them most favored nation status there isn't any need to try to avoid duties by building here.

Matter of fact, I'll make it easy, tell me where else in the world they have invested.

They can just keep buying our paper or pay for oil before the dollars deflate any further.

"Matter of fact, I'll make it easy, tell me where else in the world they have invested."

Besides buying oil fields or natural resources, that is.

"Don't overestimate the psychological effect of Tawain on Chinese policies."

Think back a few years to Cuba and how we freaked when they put missles there. I know people from Taiwan and China is a very sensitive issue right now. Hell, if they get worked up about the Dalai Lama, you don't think Taiwan getting military eqpt will get them freaked?

China has power over the US? Whose market and money is financing all that China manufacturing expansion? They wont do crap, lest the money stop flowing, and companies move their manufacturing to some other craphole.

China has power over the US? Whose market and money is financing all that China manufacturing expansion?

it's a mix of Europe, Asia, Canada and America.

They wont do crap, lest the money stop flowing, and companies move their manufacturing to some other craphole.

if the US stopped buying every Chinese product tomorrow, and China stopped buying every US product, the US economy would, in fact, collapse. China, however, would continue right along at a slightly reduced pace.

that whizzing sound was the big picture going by.

eco-man, it you who has it backwards....

"if the US stopped buying every Chinese product...." the Chinese economy would in fact collapse. The US is by far China's largest market, but the US sells relatively little to China - hence the trade inbalance and outflow of dollars.

China needs the US and the US needs China; right now China is playing games with the US, especially in pegging its currency to the dollar to keep the value artifically low. The P.R.C. needs to begin to act like a responsible member of the international community.


Sponsors


As a lawyer/blogger, I get
to be a member of:

In Vino Veritas

Lange, Pinot Gris 2015
Kiona, Lemberger 2014
Willamette Valley, Pinot Gris 2015
Aix, Rosé de Provence 2016
Marchigüe, Cabernet 2013
Inazío Irruzola, Getariako Txakolina Rosé 2015
Maso Canali, Pinot Grigio 2015
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Kirkland, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2016
Cantele, Salice Salentino Reserva 2013
Whispering Angel, Côtes de Provence Rosé 2013
Avissi, Prosecco
Cleto Charli, Lambrusco di Sorbara Secco, Vecchia Modena
Pique Poul, Rosé 2016
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly Rosé 2016
Stoller, Pinot Noir Rosé 2016
Chehalem, Inox Chardonnay 2015
The Four Graces, Pinot Gris 2015
Gascón, Colosal Red 2013
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
L'Ecole No. 41, Merlot 2013
Della Terra, Anonymus
Willamette Valley, Dijon Clone Chardonnay 2013
Wraith, Cabernet, Eidolon Estate 2012
Januik, Red 2015
Tomassi, Valpolicella, Rafaél, 2014
Sharecropper's Pinot Noir 2013
Helix, Pomatia Red Blend 2013
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
Campo Viejo, Rioja Reserva 2011
Villa Antinori, Toscana 2013
Locations, Spanish Red Wine
Locations, Argentinian Red Wine
La Antigua Clásico, Rioja 2011
Shatter, Grenache, Maury 2012
Argyle, Vintage Brut 2011
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16 Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2014
Benton Hill, Pinot Gris 2015
Primarius, Pinot Gris 2015
Januik, Merlot 2013
Napa Cellars, Cabernet 2013
J. Bookwalter, Protagonist 2012
LAN, Rioja Edicion Limitada 2011
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 2009
Denada Cellars, Cabernet, Maipo Valley 2014
Marchigüe, Cabernet, Colchagua Valley 2013
Oberon, Cabernet 2014
Hedges, Red Mountain 2012
Balboa, Rose of Grenache 2015
Ontañón, Rioja Reserva 2015
Three Horse Ranch, Pinot Gris 2014
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
Nelms Road, Merlot 2013
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris 2014
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2012
Conn Creek, Cabernet, Napa 2013
Villa Maria, Sauvignon Blanc 2015
G3, Cabernet 2013
Chateau Smith, Cabernet, Washington State 2014
Abacela, Vintner's Blend #16
Willamette Valley, Rose of Pinot Noir, Whole Clusters 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Ca' del Baio Barbaresco Valgrande 2012
Goodfellow, Reserve Pinot Gris, Clover 2014
Lugana, San Benedetto 2014
Wente, Cabernet, Charles Wetmore 2011
La Espera, Cabernet 2011
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2015
Adelsheim, Pinot Gris 2015
Trader Joe's, Pinot Gris, Willamette Valley 2015
La Vite Lucente, Toscana Red 2013
St. Francis, Cabernet, Sonoma 2013
Kendall-Jackson, Pinot Noir, California 2013
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2013
Erath, Pinot Noir, Estate Selection 2012
Abbot's Table, Columbia Valley 2014
Intrinsic, Cabernet 2014
Oyster Bay, Pinot Noir 2010
Occhipinti, SP68 Bianco 2014
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2013
Desert Wind, Ruah 2011
WillaKenzie, Pinot Gris 2014
Abacela, Fiesta Tempranillo 2013
Des Amis, Rose 2014
Dunham, Trautina 2012
RoxyAnn, Claret 2012
Del Ri, Claret 2012
Stoppa, Emilia, Red 2004
Primarius, Pinot Noir 2013
Domaines Bunan, Bandol Rose 2015
Albero, Bobal Rose 2015
Deer Creek, Pinot Gris 2015
Beaulieu, Rutherford Cabernet 2013
Archery Summit, Vireton Pinot Gris 2014
King Estate, Pinot Gris, Backbone 2014
Oberon, Napa Cabernet 2013
Apaltagua, Envero Carmenere Gran Reserva 2013
Chateau des Arnauds, Cuvee des Capucins 2012
Nine Hats, Red 2013
Benziger, Cabernet, Sonoma 2012
Roxy Ann, Claret 2012
Januik, Merlot 2012
Conundrum, White 2013
St. Francis, Sonoma Cabernet 2012

The Occasional Book

Kent Haruf - Our Souls at Night
Peter Carey - True History of the Kelly Gang
Suzanne Collins - The Hunger Games
Amy Stewart - Girl Waits With Gun
Philip Roth - The Plot Against America
Norm Macdonald - Based on a True Story
Christopher Buckley - Boomsday
Ryan Holiday - The Obstacle is the Way
Ruth Sepetys - Between Shades of Gray
Richard Adams - Watership Down
Claire Vaye Watkins - Gold Fame Citrus
Markus Zusak - I am the Messenger
Anthony Doerr - All the Light We Cannot See
James Joyce - Dubliners
Cheryl Strayed - Torch
William Golding - Lord of the Flies
Saul Bellow - Mister Sammler's Planet
Phil Stanford - White House Call Girl
John Kaplan & Jon R. Waltz - The Trial of Jack Ruby
Kent Haruf - Eventide
David Halberstam - Summer of '49
Norman Mailer - The Naked and the Dead
Maria Dermoȗt - The Ten Thousand Things
William Faulkner - As I Lay Dying
Markus Zusak - The Book Thief
Christopher Buckley - Thank You for Smoking
William Shakespeare - Othello
Joseph Conrad - Heart of Darkness
Bill Bryson - A Short History of Nearly Everything
Cheryl Strayed - Tiny Beautiful Things
Sara Varon - Bake Sale
Stephen King - 11/22/63
Paul Goldstein - Errors and Omissions
Mark Twain - A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court
Steve Martin - Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life
Beverly Cleary - A Girl from Yamhill, a Memoir
Kent Haruf - Plainsong
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 113
At this date last year: 155
Total run in 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269


Clicky Web Analytics