Man, was I ever wrong in the pro football Underdog Pool last weekend. I agonized between Houston and Tennessee, finally going with Houston, and both of them blew. The pick of the week was Carolina, and several readers here urged me in that direction. Alas, I paid them no mind, figuring that the quarterback turmoil on that team was a bad thing to under-estimate. Was I ever wrong!
I continue to lose ground to the leader of the pack in the season-long pool, but hope springs eternal. Here's the rundown for the weekend ahead (underdogs in caps), and some stupid thoughts that immediately pop into my head. Remember, the point spreads are operative only in determining what I get if I pick a winner. My team has to be an underdog that wins its game outright, and I get to pick only one:
16.5 MIAMI vs. New England
9.5 SAN FRANCISCO at New York Giants
9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas
9 ATLANTA at New Orleans
8.5 ST. LOUIS at Seattle
8 ARIZONA at Washington
6.5 NEW YORK JETS at Cincinnati
5 CHICAGO at Philadelphia
3.5 DENVER vs. Pittsburgh
3 BUFFALO vs. Baltimore
3 JACKSONVILLE vs. Indianapolis
3 KANSAS CITY at Oakland
2.5 TAMPA BAY at Detroit
1 HOUSTON vs. Tennessee
Mostly road dogs, which is scary. I'm thinking the Bears might snap out of it. Otherwise, I'd throw a long bomb with the Jets or even the Niners. But mostly, I'd like to have a winner, even if it only gains me only 3 points. Those zeroes I'm stringing together hurt worst of all.
Comments (14)
Relax, Jack. It could be worse. You could be trying to pick this year in college football.
The joke I sold - before Kentucky beat LSU - was Stanford playing Appalacian State for the National Title.
A re-post on last week's results only since UK specifically disagreed with my picks:
travis: 2-0 (Carolina, N.O.)
Unusual Kevin: 0-2 (NYJ, Dallas [that was the horrible pick of the week])
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go with Warner when money is on the line!
As I said, Warner has a propensity of getting hurt.
As for this week, Chicago may actually beat Philly. Brian Griese took over the Chicago QB job three weeks ago and the last two weeks Chicago as scored 27, 27 and 31 points his three weeks at QB. So, presuming Chicago only scores 21 points, Philly would have to score 27 to cover the spread. Philly has only scored more than 20 points in one game this year, week 3 when it scored 56 against Detroit (which is ranked 19th in run defense and 29th in passing defense).
Here is the rub with picking Chicago: Chicago's defense is pourous this year, 26th in run and 23rd in pass.
So, the question is whether Philly will rack up scores like it did in week 3 against a similarly ranked defense, or will the offense score less than 20 points as it has every other week?
In order
2.5 TAMPA BAY at Detroit - TB is way better than Detroit now on both sides of the ball.
After this, the crystal ball is real murky:
6.5 NEW YORK JETS at Cincinnati - If they start Clemens, I am hoping against hope.
Waaaaaaaaaaay out there reaches:
9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas
I know they are not NE, but Dallas' D is not that fearsome and Adrian Peterson is pretty damn impressive.
9.5 SAN FRANCISCO at New York Giants
Maybe the Giants will revert to form and the def will have an off day.
Dallas' defense is still coming together, and you know it's only going to be a matter of time until T.O. implodes. This week is it. And like any other black hole, he's gonna take everyone around him with. MN is gonna control the time of possession with AP running behind his impressive O-line, keeping the frustrated TO & Co. on the sidelines.
I like that MINNESOTA pick very much. Cowboys will be exposed. I like the 49ERS even better, even with the Giants at home. As long as Mike Nolan is not wearing a suit. Quit playing safe, go for it! Cry havoc, and let fly the dogs of the NFL. Good luck, Jack!
Charamba, Douro 2008
Horse Heaven Hills, Cabernet 2010
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills Pinot Grigio 2011
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Mercedes Eguren, Cabernet Sauvignon 2009
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Purple Moon, Merlot 2011
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Waterbrook, Reserve Merlot 2009
Lorelle, Horse Heaven Hills, Pinot Grigio 2011
Tarantas, Rose
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La Vielle Ferme, Rose 2011
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Lello, Douro Tinto 2009
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Buenas Ondas, Syrah Rose 2010
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Januik, Red 2009
Three Rivers, River's Red 2008
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Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
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Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
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Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
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The Occasional Book
Hope Larson - A Wrinkle in Time, the Graphic Novel
Rudyard Kipling - Kim
Peter Ames Carlin - Bruce
Fran Cannon Slayton - When the Whistle Blows
Neil Young - Waging Heavy Peace
Mark Bego - Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul (2012 ed.)
Jenny Lawson - Let's Pretend This Never Happened
J.D. Salinger - Franny and Zooey
Charles Dickens - A Christmas Carol
Timothy Egan - The Big Burn
Deborah Eisenberg - Transactions in a Foreign Currency
Kurt Vonnegut Jr. - Slaughterhouse Five
Kathryn Lance - Pandora's Genes
Cheryl Strayed - Wild
Fyodor Dostoyevsky - The Brothers Karamazov
Jack London - The House of Pride, and Other Tales of Hawaii
Jack Walker - The Extraordinary Rendition of Vincent Dellamaria
Colum McCann - Let the Great World Spin
Niccolò Machiavelli - The Prince
Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt
Road Work
Miles run year to date: 29
At this date last year: 66
Total run in 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
Comments (14)
Relax, Jack. It could be worse. You could be trying to pick this year in college football.
The joke I sold - before Kentucky beat LSU - was Stanford playing Appalacian State for the National Title.
Posted by Bill McDonald | October 17, 2007 8:43 AM
High points: 49ers
Mid points: Chicago
Low points: Tampa Bay
I feel uneasy about all of those. Man the Bears look bad [/sigh]
Posted by Kevin | October 17, 2007 9:17 AM
A re-post on last week's results only since UK specifically disagreed with my picks:
travis: 2-0 (Carolina, N.O.)
Unusual Kevin: 0-2 (NYJ, Dallas [that was the horrible pick of the week])
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go with Warner when money is on the line!
As I said, Warner has a propensity of getting hurt.
Posted by Travis | October 17, 2007 9:22 AM
As for this week, Chicago may actually beat Philly. Brian Griese took over the Chicago QB job three weeks ago and the last two weeks Chicago as scored 27, 27 and 31 points his three weeks at QB. So, presuming Chicago only scores 21 points, Philly would have to score 27 to cover the spread. Philly has only scored more than 20 points in one game this year, week 3 when it scored 56 against Detroit (which is ranked 19th in run defense and 29th in passing defense).
Here is the rub with picking Chicago: Chicago's defense is pourous this year, 26th in run and 23rd in pass.
So, the question is whether Philly will rack up scores like it did in week 3 against a similarly ranked defense, or will the offense score less than 20 points as it has every other week?
Posted by Travis | October 17, 2007 9:42 AM
Ugly week this week.
Chicago or Jacksonville.
Can Philly's offense beat Chicago's defense?
Jacksonville/Indy is a tough pick. Jacksonville is at home, Indy had a bye week.
Posted by John | October 17, 2007 10:08 AM
I'm not ready to make picks yet, but Hou, Tampa, KC, Jax and Chicago all have their temptations..
Posted by Sebastian | October 17, 2007 12:40 PM
In order
2.5 TAMPA BAY at Detroit - TB is way better than Detroit now on both sides of the ball.
After this, the crystal ball is real murky:
6.5 NEW YORK JETS at Cincinnati - If they start Clemens, I am hoping against hope.
Waaaaaaaaaaay out there reaches:
9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas
I know they are not NE, but Dallas' D is not that fearsome and Adrian Peterson is pretty damn impressive.
9.5 SAN FRANCISCO at New York Giants
Maybe the Giants will revert to form and the def will have an off day.
Posted by Steve | October 17, 2007 4:56 PM
The emperor has no clothes!
9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas
Dallas' defense is still coming together, and you know it's only going to be a matter of time until T.O. implodes. This week is it. And like any other black hole, he's gonna take everyone around him with. MN is gonna control the time of possession with AP running behind his impressive O-line, keeping the frustrated TO & Co. on the sidelines.
24 - 21, MN.
Posted by mj | October 17, 2007 6:49 PM
I like that MINNESOTA pick very much. Cowboys will be exposed. I like the 49ERS even better, even with the Giants at home. As long as Mike Nolan is not wearing a suit. Quit playing safe, go for it! Cry havoc, and let fly the dogs of the NFL. Good luck, Jack!
Posted by Mark Mason | October 17, 2007 8:32 PM
One more 50% confidence:
9 ATLANTA at New Orleans - Leftwich is a lot closer to Vick's onfield style of play than Joey and that is how ATL's offense is set up. So in order:
TB
ATL
MINN
NYJ
Posted by Steve | October 18, 2007 6:12 AM
Definitely Tampa over Detroit.
Posted by Dave J. | October 19, 2007 10:22 AM
I like Buff to finally get over the hump this week and make a homestand vs Balt. I hate Buff on the road, like em at home.
The NFC sucks too bad for me to feel good about Tampa on the road. Parity sucks when it comes to picking teams in a lousy conference.
Love Adrian Peterson. Don't love Minny on the road after big D's spanking at home last week.
Posted by Sebastian | October 19, 2007 4:31 PM
Chicago!! I'm amazed that Philly let Griese with no timeouts put together a 97 yard drive at the end. Wow. That might be the end of the Andy Reid era.
Jack, sure hope you had Da Bears! (or my Buff pick).
Posted by Sebastian | October 21, 2007 4:39 PM
No, I stupidly went with the majority of football experts here and took Tampa Bay.
It's getting desperate...
Posted by Jack Bog | October 21, 2007 5:26 PM