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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 17, 2007 4:20 AM. The previous post in this blog was Ted's "testy" again. The next post in this blog is A mulligan for Streetcar Smith. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

How come my 'dog don't bark?

Man, was I ever wrong in the pro football Underdog Pool last weekend. I agonized between Houston and Tennessee, finally going with Houston, and both of them blew. The pick of the week was Carolina, and several readers here urged me in that direction. Alas, I paid them no mind, figuring that the quarterback turmoil on that team was a bad thing to under-estimate. Was I ever wrong!

I continue to lose ground to the leader of the pack in the season-long pool, but hope springs eternal. Here's the rundown for the weekend ahead (underdogs in caps), and some stupid thoughts that immediately pop into my head. Remember, the point spreads are operative only in determining what I get if I pick a winner. My team has to be an underdog that wins its game outright, and I get to pick only one:

16.5 MIAMI vs. New England
9.5 SAN FRANCISCO at New York Giants
9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas
9 ATLANTA at New Orleans
8.5 ST. LOUIS at Seattle
8 ARIZONA at Washington
6.5 NEW YORK JETS at Cincinnati
5 CHICAGO at Philadelphia
3.5 DENVER vs. Pittsburgh
3 BUFFALO vs. Baltimore
3 JACKSONVILLE vs. Indianapolis
3 KANSAS CITY at Oakland
2.5 TAMPA BAY at Detroit
1 HOUSTON vs. Tennessee

Mostly road dogs, which is scary. I'm thinking the Bears might snap out of it. Otherwise, I'd throw a long bomb with the Jets or even the Niners. But mostly, I'd like to have a winner, even if it only gains me only 3 points. Those zeroes I'm stringing together hurt worst of all.

Comments (14)

Relax, Jack. It could be worse. You could be trying to pick this year in college football.
The joke I sold - before Kentucky beat LSU - was Stanford playing Appalacian State for the National Title.

High points: 49ers
Mid points: Chicago
Low points: Tampa Bay

I feel uneasy about all of those. Man the Bears look bad [/sigh]

A re-post on last week's results only since UK specifically disagreed with my picks:

travis: 2-0 (Carolina, N.O.)
Unusual Kevin: 0-2 (NYJ, Dallas [that was the horrible pick of the week])

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go with Warner when money is on the line!

As I said, Warner has a propensity of getting hurt.

As for this week, Chicago may actually beat Philly. Brian Griese took over the Chicago QB job three weeks ago and the last two weeks Chicago as scored 27, 27 and 31 points his three weeks at QB. So, presuming Chicago only scores 21 points, Philly would have to score 27 to cover the spread. Philly has only scored more than 20 points in one game this year, week 3 when it scored 56 against Detroit (which is ranked 19th in run defense and 29th in passing defense).

Here is the rub with picking Chicago: Chicago's defense is pourous this year, 26th in run and 23rd in pass.

So, the question is whether Philly will rack up scores like it did in week 3 against a similarly ranked defense, or will the offense score less than 20 points as it has every other week?

Ugly week this week.

Chicago or Jacksonville.

Can Philly's offense beat Chicago's defense?

Jacksonville/Indy is a tough pick. Jacksonville is at home, Indy had a bye week.

I'm not ready to make picks yet, but Hou, Tampa, KC, Jax and Chicago all have their temptations..

In order
2.5 TAMPA BAY at Detroit - TB is way better than Detroit now on both sides of the ball.

After this, the crystal ball is real murky:
6.5 NEW YORK JETS at Cincinnati - If they start Clemens, I am hoping against hope.

Waaaaaaaaaaay out there reaches:
9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas
I know they are not NE, but Dallas' D is not that fearsome and Adrian Peterson is pretty damn impressive.
9.5 SAN FRANCISCO at New York Giants
Maybe the Giants will revert to form and the def will have an off day.

The emperor has no clothes!

9.5 MINNESOTA at Dallas

Dallas' defense is still coming together, and you know it's only going to be a matter of time until T.O. implodes. This week is it. And like any other black hole, he's gonna take everyone around him with. MN is gonna control the time of possession with AP running behind his impressive O-line, keeping the frustrated TO & Co. on the sidelines.

24 - 21, MN.

I like that MINNESOTA pick very much. Cowboys will be exposed. I like the 49ERS even better, even with the Giants at home. As long as Mike Nolan is not wearing a suit. Quit playing safe, go for it! Cry havoc, and let fly the dogs of the NFL. Good luck, Jack!

One more 50% confidence:

9 ATLANTA at New Orleans - Leftwich is a lot closer to Vick's onfield style of play than Joey and that is how ATL's offense is set up. So in order:

TB
ATL
MINN
NYJ

Definitely Tampa over Detroit.

I like Buff to finally get over the hump this week and make a homestand vs Balt. I hate Buff on the road, like em at home.

The NFC sucks too bad for me to feel good about Tampa on the road. Parity sucks when it comes to picking teams in a lousy conference.

Love Adrian Peterson. Don't love Minny on the road after big D's spanking at home last week.

Chicago!! I'm amazed that Philly let Griese with no timeouts put together a 97 yard drive at the end. Wow. That might be the end of the Andy Reid era.

Jack, sure hope you had Da Bears! (or my Buff pick).

No, I stupidly went with the majority of football experts here and took Tampa Bay.

It's getting desperate...

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In Vino Veritas

Robert Mondavi Solaire, Cabernet 2005
Castello Monaci, Liante, Salice Salentino 2006
Ricardo Santos, Malbec 2006
Quinta da Espiga, Tinto 2006
Charles Smith, Holy Cow Merlot 2006
Charles Smith, Boom Boom Syrah 2006
Charles Smith, The Honorable Pinot Gris 2007
Santa Rita, Cabernet Reserva 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2007
Gloria, Douro, Tinto 2002
Bogle, Petite Sirah Port, Clarksburg 2005
Cardwell Hill, Pinot Noir 2004
Silkwood, Red Duet Cabernet-Syrah 2004
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006, 2007
Osborne, Solaz 2004
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Reserva 2005
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill, Shiraz Cabernet 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Cabernet, Indian Wells 2004
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Hannah Nicole, Red 2004
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2005
Protocolo, Red 2005
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2006
Portuga, Vinho Branco 2006
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1996
Kirkland, Roogle Shiraz 2004
Garda, Classico Chiaretto
A to Z, Oregon Pinot Gris 2005
I Giusti & Zanza, Nemorino 2006
Treana, Marsanne-Viognier, Central Coast 2005
Fife, Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
B.R. Cohn, Silver Label Cabernet 2005
Marques de Casa Concha, Cabernet 2005
Santi, Sortesele Pinot Grigio 2006
Al Muvedre, Tinto Joven 2006
Layer Cake, Shiraz 2006
Gritti, Ca' Andrea, Umbria red 2005
Altos de Luzon, Jumilla 2004
Thomas Leithner, Zweigelt 2004
Cain Cuvee NV 3
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot 2003
Meridian, Sauvignon Blanc 2005
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2003
Paringa, Shiraz 2005
King Estate, Pinot Gris 2005
Canoe Ridge, Merlot 2003
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2005
Kris, Pinot Grigio 2006
Silvan Ridge, Pinot Gris 2006
Fife, Mendocino Syrah, "Stanford" 2000
Castle Rock, Cabernet, Paso Robles 2005
Willakenzie, Pinot Gris 2006
The Show, Cabernet 2005
Essencia Valdemar, Rioja Rose 2006
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Horse Heaven Hills 2004
Beaulieu Vineyard. Napa Valley Cabernet 2004
Irony, Cabernet, Napa Valley 2003
Rosenblum, Petite Sirah, Heritage Clones 2005
Fra Guerau, Montsant 2002
Barefoot Chardonnay
Kana, Syrah 2004
Castell Salegg, Chardonnay, Alto Adige 2004
Fetish, The Watcher Shiraz 2004
Gold Note, Fair Play Zinfandel 2005
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Canoe Ridge Estate Cabernet 2003
Ponzi, Pinot Noir 2004
Red Diamond, Merlot 2003
Mateus, Rose
Benton Lane Pinot Noir 2004
Penya Cadiella Vins de Comtat 2003
Kamiak, Cellar Select Red 2003
Anselmi, San Vincenzo 2005
Rubrato, Aglianico dei Feudi di San Gregorio 2004
Le Grand Noir (Black Sheep) Cabernet-Shiraz
Woodbridge, Chardonnay 2005
Los Vascos, Cabernet, Reserve 2004
Jackaroo, Shiraz 2003
Paul Jaboulet Aine, Crozes Hermitage Syrah, "La Jalet," 2001
Paul Jaboulet Aine, Cotes du Rhone, "Parallele '45,'" 2003
Rolf Binder, Barossa Valley Shiraz 2003
Oyster Bay, Sauvignon Blanc 2006
Woodbridge Chardonnay 2005
Barnard & Griffin, Columbia Valley Cabernet 2004
Quinto do Carmo, Alentejano Red 2000
Forefathers, Alexander Valley Cabernet 2001

The Occasional Book

Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 28
At this date last year: 102
Total run in 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
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