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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 31, 2007 3:21 AM. The previous post in this blog was Hard, of hearing. The next post in this blog is That Interstate cheer. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Dog tired

Another miserable outcome for me in the pro football underdog pool last weekend. Oakland -- yeah, right.

We're starting to get a bit desperate here, people, but if you see a winner in caps here, let me know. They have to win their game outright -- the points are just there to tell you what I'll win if I pick the underdog and it wins that game:

9 BALTIMORE at Pittsburgh
7 MINNESOTA vs. San Diego
5.5 INDIANAPOLIS vs. New England
4 CAROLINA at Tennessee
3.5 NEW YORK JETS vs. Washington
3.5 ARIZONA at Tampa Bay
3.5 JACKSONVILLE at New Orleans
3 DENVER at Detroit
3 PHILADELPHIA vs. Dallas
3 HOUSTON at Oakland
3 SAN FRANCISCO at Atlanta
2 GREEN BAY at Kansas City
1 BUFFALO vs. Cincinnati
1 SEATTLE at Cleveland

My guesses off the top of my head are Indy or Minny at home. Given how far behind I've fallen in the rankings, any game under 3.5 points probably isn't worth my taking unless it's the only sure thing up there. And none of those dogs looks that good to my untrained eye. As always, however, I am open to expert suggestion.

Comments (18)

The picks this week suck.

I barely squeaked by and picked up 4.5 with my Jacksonville pick last week, but a W is W when all the dust settles.
I have 14.5 points for the season which isn't too bad considering I missed out on making a pick for two of the weeks.

The 2-4 Vikings are now down to their third string QB, which isn't such a great thing when you consider that San Diego seems to have gotten its mojo back by re-establishing their running game.

The Patriots are just too darned good to bet against. Tom Brady hasn't made a mistake all year and their offense just can't be stopped. This years Patriot team may end up being ranked up there with the some of the best NFL teams of all time.

I would have gone with Carolina, but V. Testaverde is doubtful for Sunday with a blown out Achilles tendon and his backup sucks.

Out of the picks at the 3.5 level the best looking team is Jacksonville, but they have a no name back up QB going up against a surging Drew Brees at home. New Orleans has also won its last 3 games and they seem to be getting their game back in order.

Houston over Oakland is a good possible choice at the 3 point level.

My pick of the week is Green Bay since it's only one point less than Houston with less risk. It's only 2 points, but 2 points is better than no points.

Tough week, really tough week.

Baltimore can't score, so Pitsburgh will roll them. Minnesota is on their 3rd string QB, and their only offense weapon (Peterson) has been stopped the last few games.

Indy has a chance against the Patriots, and it all depends if Freeney and Co. can get a pass rush on Brady. The reason he is so awesome at the QB spot right now, is he never gets hurried or sacked. If the Colts can put a rush on him (which I think they are capable of) then Indy has a shot.

I'd take Indy in the only game that has a chance. All others are too tough to try and pick the underdog.

Oh, and all three of my suggestions won last week (Green Bay, Buffalo, Jacksonville)

Whatever else, Not Minnesota. Adrian Peterson isn't good enough to carry them against the New San Diego.

It is a tough week to pick an upset but I would go with the Seahawks. They are coming off a bye week so they are well rested. The Browns beat the Rams last week but didn't play all that well, and 2 weeks ago the Seahawks thumped the Rams.

Go Seahawks!

Jack, I gave you Buffalo last week and K.C. the week before. Since your in a bit of a desperation mode I think Indy has a reasonable chance to beat N.E. Otherwise, I like San Francisco.

2 points is better than no points.

Unless the people ahead of you get 3.

I'm going with Oakland over Houston at home and Buffalo over the Bengals. As an aside - I think there is a possibility New England might meet it's match with Payton Manning and the Colts. They seem like the only team to give them a run for the Super Bowl trophy right now.

Ouch. You picked Oakland last week. I'll raise my hand in shame. My pick this week is for your bemusement purposes only: Indy. You'll likely never get to pick them as the underdog again this season, much less get 5.5 for the upset....

Don't bet against the Colts in Indianapolis. Not this year.

The golden rule this year is don't pick against the Patriots, so that leaves Indy out. I know you don't often get points when Indy is at home but there is better value out there.

Choose one of the following two:

1) Carolina is probalby the most likely to win of all the underdogs this week and they will give you four points. They have key players returning from injury and Vince Young of Tennessee appears rusty after returning from an injury last week.

2) Baltimore is the best value this week because of the 9 points you can gain. You are taking more risk but if you need to make a splash and get back in the thick of the race, you may want to consider Baltimore. They know Pittsburg pretty well since they are dvision rivals and they still have a good defense and they keep games close. They will need a little luck and a win here will put them in the thick of the playoffs.

your picks for this week should include..houston, 9er's, green bay and seattle

Jacko, take the Colts!!

Colts. Last week, I gave untaken bad advice. [/shame]

COLTS? No, Brady and Moss are too tough now. I'm just depressed to see Atlanta favored over my 9ers. My, how far they have fallen. For an easy three, go 9ers. For the best return on your investment, MINN at home vs San Diego. Not convinced Norv has their full attention yet. Good luck, Jack!

The 2-4 Vikings are now down to their third string QB, which isn't such a great thing...

Minnesota is on their 3rd string QB, and their only offense weapon (Peterson) has been stopped the last few games...

Whatever else, Not Minnesota. Adrian Peterson isn't good enough to carry them against the New San Diego...

This is why I should not try to predict NFL contests, in any way, shape or form, ever.

This entire pool has an element of dumb luck to it. Only one poster mention 2-4 Minnesota with a 3rd string QB out of a total of 14 games, and even he acknowledged it was a long shot. Going with Indy over New England made more sense than Minnesota over SD. Out of the 14 games only 4 of the the dogs won (so far since the Monday Night game hasn't been played) which means that there was only a 29% probability that you would be able to pick a winner this week. 3 of the 4 dogs (Houston, Green Bay and Buffalo) were good for 3 points or less. The NFL is supposed to be designed to create competitive parity between the teams hence the saying that "on any given Sunday" your team can win, and in the history of the league only a small handful of teams have gone all year undefeated.

I'm back! It's been a long drought. Hope you went with the Vikes. 7 put you back in the game! MM


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