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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 2, 2007 10:43 PM. The previous post in this blog was Kroger's website is a blog. The next post in this blog is Ding dong, the Wal-Mart's dead. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Barkin' all the time

Another mid-week is upon us, and with it another slate of pro football games to prognosticate about. The underdog pool in which I play calls upon us to pick a team that's favored to lose, but will win its game outright, this weekend. Last weekend, with the help of commenters here, I had a winner for the third straight week -- Detroit over Da Bearss. But that win netted me only 3 points in the season cumulative tally, while the one player in the pool who was brave enough to take lowly Kansas City over the stoned San Diego Chargers racked up 11.5 points and has taken a lead that may turn out to be insurmountable.

Did any of our commenters alert us to that Kansas City game? Oh, yes. Some choice quotes from last week:

"I'd go out on a limb and guess Kansas City. Either San Diego will figure themselves out and play up to their ability, or KC might actually have a shot...." -- John

"[W]hy not KANSAS CITY over San Diego? Hungry Herm could prove a handful to the confused Chargers. Maybe it's too easy a pick." -- Mark Mason

"KC over SD. I think the chargers are tanking due to the firing of Marty. NBA players do it, why not NFL players. Norv is the worst coach ever. WHEN he gets fired, he'll never coach in the NFL again." -- don reyes

"My jury is out on KC and SD. I'm scared that would be the bonehead smart pick and then have it backfire when SD wins. Smart pick is on Oakland. If you're a gambler, go with KC." -- PDX East

Here's this coming weekend's lineup. I need one underdog team (designated in caps below) that will win its game outright. The number to the left of the each matchup is the number of points I will win if I take that underdog and it wins. Right now I'm tied for fifth among 16 players, and so there's no need to do anything rash. I'd rather have another modest win than swing for the fences and come up with nothing. But hey, I've got to make up 10 points over the rest of the season against someone who obviously knows what she is doing, and so everything else being equal, the bigger the upset, the better:

16.5 CLEVELAND at New England
10 TAMPA BAY at Indianapolis
10 BUFFALO vs. Dallas
8 ATLANTA at Tennessee
6 SEATTLE at Pittsburgh
5.5 MIAMI at Houston
3.5 NEW YORK JETS at New York Giants
3.5 DETROIT at Washington
3 CHICAGO at Green Bay
3 ST. LOUIS vs. Arizona
3 SAN FRANCISCO vs. Baltimore
3 CAROLINA at New Orleans
2 KANSAS CITY vs. Jacksonville
1 SAN DIEGO at Denver

Help me out again, folks. I'm all ears.

Comments (16)

I jumped into this in week 3 and picked Green Bay at home over San Diego for +4.5. I was the lone voice in the wilderness during week 4, and picked Arizona at home over Pittsburgh for +6 and a respectable cumulative total of +10.5.

My pick for week 5 is SEATTLE over Pitt. My judgment is probably clouded by emotion for my favorite team because the Hawks don't travel east very well, haven't established their ground game, and Pittsburgh is tough as heck at home. So if you're smart, you won't follow my pick.

Carolina over the lowly Saints is tempting. I'm might go with them if Delhomme is healthy, but there is no word on that yet, so I'm holding back until his status is clear.

I must agree. The 'Cojones' award to all who picked KC. If they played that game again, I'd *still* pick against them. And Tomlinson cried after the game, which is typically a bad sign when your Pro Bowl RB does that.....

Jack, how many pts are you out of first place?

Ten. But as I say, I don't need to make them all up at once. There are many weeks left.

Oh yeah, 10pts is nothing. In fact, you could look at it the other way and justify taking a few shots down the field, as it were.

I like Seattle over Pittsburch, Detroit over Washington, and San Diego over Denver.

I think Seattle is playing like a complete team right now, Detroit has too much offense for Washington (did I just say that?), and LaDanian Tomlinson is going to carry San Diego on his shoulders, as he is just plain tired of losing, and I can't see SD 1-4.

OK, in order

1) SD - They have to get it together sometime and this is a must win.

2) NYJ - The Jets have a better def backfield than the Eagles did, the Giants didn't look that good.

LONGSHOT
3) TB - TB is starting to shape up offensively finally. Cadillac wasnt that much of a contributor prior, so I am hoping they can hold IND to low scores.

SAN FRAN over Baltimore. Trent Dilfer against the team that wronged him. There's your three. Next best is SEATTLE over Pittsburgh. This is Holmgren's statement game (not last week) against a playoff hopeful team. Lose this and they may be tied with the 49ers again, now that's motivation. That's also 6 for you. The top four are untouchable, but if you forced me to pick one I'd go with an emotional BUFFALO at home on Monday night surprising the Cowboys. If we could take the points it's the best bet of the week.

I realize that giving you too much multiple choice might not be very useful, since you get one pick. I'll narrow it to one or two money picks and a longshot a week.

SD - Steve's right: it's a must win. I'd imagine the majority of pickers are going with SD this week. And Denver can't stop the run. So it *should* be an upset...but it's in Denver so you might want to consider....

KC - Officially clicking now they have a passing attack and their D is awake. And Arrowhead is no picnic. I think they keep it going with a close one against an overrated Jax team.

LONGSHOT: Since so many people will probably jump at SD and the 1 pt, this might be a good week for....SEA over PITT. As Mark said, I think they come in with superbowl revenge on their mind, and Holmgren will provide suitable motivation. The 6 pts is a nice prize for teams that I think are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball. The line *should* be 3 or 4.

I'm going with Carolina over New Orleans and Seattle over the Steelers this week. I was okay with my pick of Oakland last week. And as a former Raider fan from the Bay Area; it's nice to see the team getting some life again.(I'm old enough to remember when John Madden had red hair!)
I also picked the Bills to win and they did. But not enough to beat the spread.

Out on a limb, but a good feeling, Buffalo over Dallas.

Safer: Seattle over Pittsburgh. Rematch of Super Bowl XL. Seattle is hitting on all cylinders.

Safest - if there is such a thing: Jets over Giants. No home field advantage for either team. Giants look bad. Almost Chicago bad (pick your sport too).

Ok, but the Jets look good?!

Jack,
Here is my High Risk/High Reward pick and some reasons why that risk might be mitigated. Tampa Bay over Indy.(I am a die hard indy fan btw).

First, even though Cadillac is out for the season they have a great running back in Michael Pittman who can run well and block but also has great hands for receiving. They will most likely be running by committee with Pittman and Earnest Graham, another capable pass protector and runner. Jeff Garcia looks to be firing on all cylinders using a short yardage game in the air and a controlling ground game. Couple this with a defense that has played extremely well and that makes for a good game.

On the other side of the ball are my Colts. Plagued with injuries this may be a fortuitous time for the Bucs to meet them. Defensively the Colts have Keiaho/Morris(LB's) banged up, Rushing/Sanders(Safety, Sanders a key player) banged up, Utecht(TE) concussion, Hall/Harrison(WR) both with potentially serious injuries, and most importantly Joseph Addai, who may play but will probably not be a full speed with his chest injury.

So there you have it, 10 risky points waiting for you that could turn the tide in your favor if you dare.

Have a great weekend!

Pittsburgh and the Giants win. Shows what I know ...

Yeah, I'm very proud of my KC and SEA picks....

The 'Hawks should be ashahmed!

Well Jack,
Hope you didn't listen to me....Can't believe I bought into my own hype. Some Colts fan I am....I'll take the 5-0 though.


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