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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on September 26, 2007 7:59 AM. The previous post in this blog was Horrible news for Measure 49 fans. The next post in this blog is Eat it up. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Hellhounds on my tail

It's the fourth week of pro football, and we're back in search of an underdog team that can pull an upset, winning its game outright. The point spread matters only in that the bigger the upset, the more points I score if I picked it in the pool in which I'm playing. Here are the games, with the underdogs in caps. Who are the show dogs in that lowly pack?

12.5 ST. LOUIS at Dallas
11.5 KANSAS CITY at San Diego
9.5 DENVER at Indianapolis
8 CINCINNATI vs. New England
6 ARIZONA vs. Pittsburgh
4.5 CLEVELAND vs. Baltimore
4 OAKLAND at Miami
3.5 BUFFALO vs. New York Jets
3 DETROIT vs. Chicago
2.5 ATLANTA vs. Houston
2.5 NEW YORK GIANTS vs. Philadelphia
2 SAN FRANCISCO vs. Seattle
1.5 MINNESOTA vs. Green Bay

UPDATE, 10:21 p.m.: Added this evening:

3.5 TAMPA BAY at Carolina

Comments (15)

I'd go out on a limb and guess Kansas City. Either San Diego will figure themselves out and play up to their ability, or KC might actually have a shot.

Other than that, Oakland is the only one I see winning. I would've expected the Minnesota v. Green Bay spread to be much higher.

I like Oakland's chances as well. I also think the laws of averages point to Denver finally beating the Colts in Indy.

Take SAN FRANCISCO and MINNESOTA at home. It's a stretch to think the 9ers will beat Seattle 3x in a row, but home field (and a broekn Alexander) could do it. And why not KANSAS CITY over San Diego? Hungry Herm could prove a handful to the confused Chargers. Maybe it's too easy a pick.

Very strong and widely reported rumor is that Grossman is out against the Lions and Griese is in. Bad news (for the) Bears is that their entire defense is injured, save Urlacher. Go with the Lions.

(PS - I'm a Chicago fan)

If you want to go out on a limb and try to gain some points, go with Denver over Indianapolis - though it's highly unlikely.

In the adventuresome spirit that has made my life what it is, I will pick Cincinnatti to get it done against New England.
And the best thing is Bill Bellichick will have all the highlights on film.

And speaking of getting it done, Jack: That was an incredible blogging output yesterday. Scroll the Tuesday stuff below this post to see what I mean.

KC over SD. I think the chargers are tanking due to the firing of Marty. NBA players do it, why not NFL players. Norv is the worst coach ever. WHEN he gets fired, he'll never coach in the NFL again.

My sleeper pick that no one else has made yet is Arizona because they are playing at home and have looked fairly decent lately with their two losses in very close games on the road. Also Hines Ward is doubtful and that will have a big impact on the Steelers passing game.

San Fransico over Seattle is tempting because the Hawks just barely have their act together right now, but I never go on record against my favorite team...EVER.

Minnesota is tempting over Green Bay because they're at home, but I'm not gonna bite.

I'm picking Detroit over Chicago. On paper Chicago should cover, but their defense is full of injuries. Their defensive backfield is on life support and they face a very potent passing attack.

(Their front seven are pretty dinged up too).

On offense, they just switched qb's today(about time), so I wouldn't expect Griese flourish quickly in a likely shootout.

And before anyone brings up their 56 pt debacle in Philly, remember this game is at home (in a dome) against a division rival.

I'm going this week with Buffalo over the NY Jets and Oakland over Miami. Buffalo and the Jets are both having quarterback issues; but as a former upstate N.Y. guy I have to pull for the Bills. I think Oakland is finally showing some life. Maybe this will add another W for them.

Oakland over Miami

My jury is out on KC and SD. I'm scared that would be the bonehead smart pick and then have it backfire when SD wins.

Smart pick is on Oakland. If you're a gambler, go with KC

In order again:

1) TB - I don't think people give Garcia enough credit. Look at Phila last year after McNab got benched. CAR can't score to save their life.

2) SF - Sorry, just a plain mancrush on SF and SEA is barely crawling out of games. SF won last year also and they are better.

3) OAK - What can I say, I like Daunte and the revenge factor for one game.

4) DET - Griese shouldnt throw too many INTs, but he is their best shot offensively so far. CHI is showing some weakness in def backfield, so I am hoping Kitna can put something together.

5) NYG - Nothing has really changed with PHI outside of getting the worst def in DET last week.

Late to the party! Sorry, it was a travel day. In order of least risky to most, IMO.

Obvious standout here is DET at home. If the Bears D was at full roar, maybe Griese would be required to do little enough to get it done. I think CHI gets behind by 14 and it gets ugly.

SF is also an intriguing pick. Seattle's offense looks pretty broken right now...I could see lots of Frank Gore rushing yds.

If you want to get riskier, I think CLEV has a legit shot if they don't get behind and need Anderson to throw towards Ed Reed. But you might want to avoid me picking against the Ravens. I can't seem to get this one right.

Points @ home ATL over Houston.

In this pool, the underdog has to win outright.

Mighty props to whoever picked KC. I knew Norv was cursed, but SD had no weaknesses last year.


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Total run in 2016: 155
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