Wisconsin prediction (Jack Bog's Blog)

It's not what I want to see happen, but I think it should go something like this:

Kerry 54% Edwards 20% Dean 18% Clark 5% Kucinich 1% Vince Lombardi 0.6% Sharpton 0.5%

To me, it seems as though this time around, the Democratic Party is a bunch of impatient, weary folks who just want to name a candidate and get on with trying to beat Bush. It's too much work to spend more than five minutes comparing the candidates in any kind of depth, and so many of them are just going with the guy who's ahead. Like Imus is doing.

Which isn't to say that on closer look, they wouldn't still go with Kerry. But in fact I think that many voters can't get past his front-runner status. Oh, well. I'll vote for him in November; we have no other choice.

I guess "Opie" Edwards is going to hang in there at least until after Super Tuesday. Then maybe he can decide whether he wants to be the running mate.

I saw Kerry on TV tonight making some sort of snide remark about W. It was supposed to get a laugh from the crowd, and man, it went over like a nail on a chalkboard. Forget the intern, the PAC money, Hanoi Jane, and the flip-flopping -- it's the sheer unlikeability that's going to be his downfall. I shudder to think of him on that convention stage with Ted holding up one arm and Hillary the other.

There are so many swing groups that he won't play well with. Starting with women. I'm still very concerned that he won't be able to pull it off.

How can this guy win the nomination so easily?

Comments (11)

If Edwards just had at least another four years of experience under his belt he probably would register higher with a scared Democratic Party. With Kerry, I think the Democrats are simply seeing a war veteran running against a chicken-hawk war-time sitting president. I don't see the part warmly receiving his politics in general. It is all about one thing, and one thing only: beat President *. Now whether he has the ability to do that or not, I'm not really sure. At least he seems cleaner than Dollar Bill Clinton. The reason Dollar Bill was able to win was because he was actually better at being a sleaze than the Republicans could ever hope to be, and therefore better able to raise money.

IMHO.

Posted by hilsy | February 15, 2004 6:26 AM

Amen.

In addition, I think that his "Band of Brothers" that follows him around is not representative of the way he is viewed by veterans and definitely not representative of how he is regarded by those serving on active duty.

Posted by Parkway Rest Stop | February 15, 2004 6:36 AM

The "Amen" referred to Jack's Kerry unlikeability ovservation, not to Hilsy's comment containing the "chickenhawk" reference.

Posted by Parkway Rest Stop | February 15, 2004 6:40 AM

I am going to go out on a limb here to say that I think Edwards will take at least 30% in Wisconsin. Also, I think you are over-estimating Dean and underestimating Kucinich. Although I think the debate tonight will be the deciding factor for many voters in Wisconsin, I am expecting Edwards to do quite well.

Posted by notoutyet | February 15, 2004 9:27 AM

I've been e-mailing everyone I know in Wisconsin telling them to vote for Edwards, not Kerry, and have convinced a few (including my mom, who originally was going for Kerry) that Edwards is a stronger candidate. A few drops in the bucket at least.

Posted by Sam | February 15, 2004 10:13 AM

Keep the Edwards faith!

Posted by Jesse Cornett | February 15, 2004 5:49 PM

My heart's with Edwards. Alas, my bet is on Lurch.

Posted by Jack Bog | February 15, 2004 5:52 PM

After watching the debate tonight, I am going to out even further on a limb - Edwards will beat Kerry in Wisconsin.

Posted by notoutyet | February 15, 2004 6:07 PM

I hope you're right, but I think you're overestimating the attention span of the voters, many of whom were asking their spouses, "Is Zorro on?"

Posted by Jack Bog | February 15, 2004 6:36 PM

I love Edwards, and I will vote for him when he is a viable candidate in a few years. Right now, he just looks too young, and unfortunately how voters see him makes a difference to how they hear him and his ideas. This was just a test run (pun intended). He will be back.

Posted by pdxkona | February 16, 2004 9:51 PM

The "Hanoi Jane" photo appears to have been doctored. http://www.newsday.com/ny-kerry0215,0,1445946,print.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

The rumor about his "Monica" appears to be false. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/02/16/politics1300EST0543.DTL

But your statement about his "likeability" stands. I like Edwards more too.

Posted by josh | February 17, 2004 10:00 PM